2021 Hurricane Outlook Forecast
The following 2021 Hurricane Season Outlook was updated on May 13, 2021 to reflect the outcome of our Outlook webinar. For our outlook recording and other information, please click here.
The 2021 Hurricane Season
Now that the Earth Networks meteorology team presented the 2021 Hurricane Outlook, we can share the details on what to expect during this year’s hurricane season! In case you missed the webinar, you can still access the recording here as well as the accompanying slides.
You can view the 2021 Hurricane Outlook recording via the YouTube link above.
What can we predict for this hurricane season?
In the 2021 Hurricane Outlook, our meteorology team gives us the scoop on the 2021 hurricane forecast. The World Meteorological Organization develops the names for Northern Pacific and Atlantic storms. According to the National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center, the 2021 Atlantic hurricanes will have the following potential names:
- Ana
- Bill
- Claudette
- Danny
- Elsa
- Fred
- Grace
- Henri
- Ida
- Julian
- Kate
- Larry
- Mindy
- Nicholas
- Odette
- Peter
- Rose
- Sam
- Teresa
- Victor
- Wanda
2020 Hurricane Outlook Accuracy
So how will this year’s hurricane season compare to last year? In 2020, there were a total of 30 tropical storms, 14 hurricanes, and 7 major hurricanes. There were tropical watches and warnings issued in every coastal county except Wakulla and Jefferson in Florida. To learn more about the 2020 hurricane season, take a look at the 2020 Hurricane Season Outlook blog and recording.
Earth Networks’ 2021 Hurricane Outlook forecast is also available on the Barcelona Supercomputing Center site, which provides the most recent tropical cyclone forecasts from each of the prominent forecasting centers.
Last year, the Earth Networks’ meteorology team predicted 16 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes— there were a total of 30 named storms, 14 hurricanes, and 7 storms at the end of the hurricane season. Above all, the predictions were fairly close to the actual numbers last year; the majority of the season’s storms and hurricanes were accurately predicted. Let’s see what this hurricane season will be like.
What will impact the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season?
What elements will play a role in this year’s hurricane season? The primary key predictors include:
- El Niño / La Niña (ENSO)
- Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO)
Key Predictors in the 2021 Hurricane Season: ENSO and AMO
Similar to last year, Earth Networks predicts another ENSO this hurricane season. An ENSO is a periodic cyclical warming and cooling of the equatorial pacific oceans.
Additionally, we predict increased AMO activity, which is defined as Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. As a result, the combination of both AMO and ENSO modulate Atlantic tropical activity. Additionally, when ENSO phase is combined with AMO phase, a clear pattern emerges. Moreover, stronger La Niñas and positive AMOs favor more active hurricane seasons, whereas stronger El Niños and negative AMOs favor more inactive hurricane seasons. To learn more about ESNO and AMO predictions, take an inside look at the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane slide deck.
The 2021 Hurricane Outlook also reviews the following information:
- Latest ocean water temperature anomalies
- Forecast summer ocean water temperature anomalies
- West African rainfall
- Analog years— years with similar predictor patterns to 2021
Combining All Predictions
Earth Networks determines the final forecast probability based on the likelihood of ACE falling into a given tercile. Accordingly, Tercile groupings correspond to 1/3 (33.3%) of observed seasonal values in 1950 to 2020 climatology. We define ACE as Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), the sum of the Squares of 6-hourly Maximum Sustained Wind Speeds (in units of knots) for all Systems while they are at least Tropical Storm intensity. Our statistical prediction forecast is based a neural network incorporating several predictors in the Atlantic ocean basin that have shown skill in seasonal ACE forecasting. So what does that mean for this year’s hurricane season? Keep reading to find out!
Our 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook
With all of these factors top of mind, our team of experts meteorologists are predicting an above average hurricane season.
There is a 55% of an above average hurricane season in 2021. There is a 30% chance of a normal season, and just a 15% chance of a below normal hurricane season.
Based on the statistical model forecasts from our Earth Networks’ meteorology team, our forecasters are predicting 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. As you can see in the chart above, our forecast reveals an above average hurricane season ahead.
Overall, we can expect a 2021 hurricane season reflecting the following forecast quantities for storms and hurricanes:
Are you prepared for this hurricane season? 🌀⛈
Plan Ahead for the 2021 Hurricane Season
This hurricane season will be full of storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes. Our team of expert meteorologists has the accuracy and expertise to help you effectively plan and maintain your operations. Contact us today to see how the expert meteorologists at Earth Networks, in addition to our weather monitoring and alerting tools, can help you get through the 2021 hurricane season.
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